Market
How will Iran respond to potential U.S. military actions by March 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Retaliatory military action • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Increased nuclear activity • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Official Iranian government statements or credible news reports
Story
Biden Weighed Iran Strike Options If Tehran Advances Toward Nuclear Weapon Before Jan. 20: Axios
Jan 2, 2025, 09:28 PM
President Joe Biden recently discussed potential plans for a U.S. military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities if Tehran accelerates its efforts to develop a nuclear weapon before January 20, according to a report by Axios citing unnamed sources. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan presented Biden with options during a secret meeting held roughly one month ago that remained secret until now. Some of Biden's aides believe that Iran's advancing nuclear program and weakened air defenses present both an imperative and an opportunity to act. They also consider Iran's degraded proxies as improving the odds of a successful strike and decreasing the risk of Iranian retaliation. Biden did not authorize any military action during the meeting, and no active plans are underway to conduct such operations at this time.
View original story
Similar markets
Diplomatic Measures • 25%
No Significant Response • 25%
Accelerated Nuclear Development • 25%
Military Retaliation • 25%
Military retaliation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased military readiness • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
No significant change • 34%
Decreased activity • 33%
Increased activity • 33%
Increase in nuclear development • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Military retaliation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Seek diplomatic talks • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Retaliate militarily • 25%
Escalate nuclear activities • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Support from NATO allies • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Other responses • 25%
Retaliatory measures • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increase military drills • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Military support to Houthis • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
Cyber attacks • 25%
