Market
What will be Iran's response to calls for regime change by the end of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Crackdown on protests • 25%
Reforms announced • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Official statements from the Iranian government or reports from major news outlets
Story
Marco Rubio Criticizes Iranian Clerics, Supports Regime Change in Senate Hearing
Jan 15, 2025, 07:01 PM
Marco Rubio, nominated by President Trump for the position of U.S. Secretary of State, expressed a strong view on Iran during his Senate confirmation hearing. Rubio stated that there is a significant difference between the Iranian people and the radical Shia clerics who govern them, emphasizing that the clerics are not representative of the Iranian populace or its historical contributions to humanity. He highlighted the disconnect between the Iranian government and its people, suggesting that the regime is at its weakest point and that some within the government might be attempting to buy time through negotiations. Rubio also noted that the Iranian people are part of an ancient civilization and that the regime is pursuing nuclear weapons while the populace has been rising up for regime change.
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Increased diplomatic engagement • 25%
Withdrawal from previous agreements • 25%
Increased military posturing • 25%
Maintained status quo • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increase in nuclear development • 25%
Military retaliation • 25%
Retaliatory measures • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Increase military drills • 25%
Both • 25%
Neither • 25%
President • 25%
Supreme Leader • 25%
Legal Action • 25%
Formal Denial • 25%
Diplomatic Action • 25%
No Action • 25%
Requests modifications • 25%
Accepts and begins negotiations • 25%
No response by deadline • 25%
Declines proposal • 25%
Accelerated Nuclear Development • 25%
No Significant Response • 25%
Diplomatic Measures • 25%
Military Retaliation • 25%
Maintain current stance • 25%
Enhance nuclear energy use • 25%
Seek diplomatic resolution • 25%
Pursue nuclear weapons • 25%
Complete policy overhaul • 25%
Increased diplomatic engagement • 25%
Continuation of current policy • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased military readiness • 25%
Military retaliation • 25%