Market
How will China respond to potential Western penalties related to Taiwan?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Economic countermeasures • 25%
Military posturing • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Official announcements from the Chinese government or credible international news sources
Story
China Imposes Sanctions on Russia, Studies Evasion Strategies for Taiwan Conflict
Dec 1, 2024, 04:03 AM
China has imposed new sanctions on the supply of equipment and chemicals to Russia, signaling a potential shift in its stance amid rising tensions with Western countries. The new restrictions may complicate the export of critical products to Russia, with analysts suggesting that U.S. influence may have played a role in this decision. In response to the sanctions, China has formed a dedicated team to assess their impact, according to the Wall Street Journal. Additionally, officials in Beijing are reportedly studying Russia's strategies for evading sanctions to prepare for potential conflicts, such as a Taiwan-related scenario, and the associated Western penalties.
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Seek diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase military posturing • 25%
Implement counter-sanctions • 25%
Strengthen economic ties with Russia • 25%
Increase foreign reserve diversification • 25%
Develop new trade routes with non-Western countries • 25%
Other • 25%
Economic sanctions on U.S. • 25%
Diplomatic protests • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased military presence near Taiwan • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
Joint military exercises • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
Increased military presence by U.S. allies • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Sanctions imposed on China • 25%
Condemnation by major international bodies • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other responses • 25%
No significant reaction • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Retaliatory sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
Other retaliatory measures • 25%
Military exercise • 25%
Diplomatic protests only • 25%
Military exercises near Taiwan • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic protests • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased military drills • 25%
Economic sanctions on Taiwan • 25%
Condemnation by UN • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic mediation efforts • 25%
Sanctions by Western countries • 25%