Market
Number of nuclear bombs Iran could produce by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
0-3 bombs • 25%
4-6 bombs • 25%
7-9 bombs • 25%
10 or more bombs • 25%
Reports from the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence or similar agencies
Story
IAEA Reports Dramatic Surge in Iran's Uranium Enrichment, Nearing Weapons-Grade
Dec 6, 2024, 01:25 PM
Iran has significantly ramped up its uranium enrichment capabilities, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The IAEA's Director-General Rafael Grossi announced a dramatic increase in Iran's production of uranium enriched to up to 60% purity, close to weapons-grade. Previously, Iran was producing uranium at a rate of around 5-7 kilograms per month, but Grossi indicated that this could now increase by seven to eight times or even more. This development comes amidst Iran's response to its diplomatic and military challenges in Syria, Lebanon, and its nuclear file. The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence has also revealed that if Iran continues with its expected uranium enrichment, it could produce enough material for 12 nuclear bombs.
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9 to 12 • 25%
5 to 8 • 25%
More than 12 • 25%
Less than 5 • 25%
Other policy change • 25%
Decrease enrichment levels • 25%
Increase enrichment levels • 25%
Maintain current levels • 25%
Reduced nuclear activities • 25%
Nuclear program dismantled • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant advancements • 25%
Military intervention occurs • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Iran complies with nuclear deal terms • 25%
New sanctions imposed on Iran • 25%
Maintain current stance • 25%
Pursue nuclear weapons • 25%
Enhance nuclear energy use • 25%
Seek diplomatic resolution • 25%