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International response to South China Sea tensions by end of 2024?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Sanctions against China • 25%
Sanctions against Philippines • 25%
Diplomatic mediation • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Official statements from involved countries and international organizations, verified news reports
Story
Philippines Asserts Independence Amid South China Sea Tensions Over Ren'ai Jiao
Jun 8, 2024, 01:42 PM
China has expressed opposition to the Philippines' attempt to permanently occupy Ren'ai Jiao. The Philippines has responded by asserting its security independence and stating that it will continue to maintain and supply its South China Sea outposts without seeking permission from any other nation. Tensions have escalated as Sweden's defense chief criticized Beijing's dangerous maneuvers against Philippine vessels, which he said threaten global security and stability. Additionally, the Philippines accused China of harassing scientists and the Philippine Coast Guard during a research mission. Video evidence from the Global Times showed Philippine military boats involved in the transport and repair of suspicious materials. China’s Defense Minister has warned of 'limits' to Beijing’s restraint in the region.
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Sanctions on China • 33%
Sanctions on Philippines • 33%
No Sanctions • 34%
Support for China • 25%
Support for Philippines • 25%
Neutral or no clear support • 25%
Escalation involving other nations • 25%
Public support for the Philippines • 25%
Public support for China • 25%
Calls for peaceful resolution • 25%
No significant international reaction • 25%
Diplomatic Agreement • 33%
Military Confrontation • 33%
Ongoing Dispute • 34%
UN mediation offered • 34%
US support increases • 33%
No international intervention • 33%
Support for Philippines • 25%
Neutral or no response • 25%
Support for China • 25%
Divided responses among international actors • 25%
UN Resolution • 33%
ASEAN Intervention • 33%
No major intervention • 34%
Economic sanctions against China • 33%
Increased military support for Taiwan • 33%
No significant action taken • 34%
No formal response • 20%
Verbal condemnation • 20%
Diplomatic sanctions • 20%
Military demonstration • 20%
Other • 20%
Condemnation by the UN • 25%
Support from Russia or North Korea • 25%
Neutral stance by the EU • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 33%
Economic sanctions • 33%
Military intervention • 34%