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Outcome of the South China Sea incident by end of 2024?
5
Philippine•Second Thomas Shoal•South China Sea•China•Coast Guard•CCTV•Philippine military•Chinese Coast Guard•Reuters•Ayungin Shoal•Philippines
Resolution / Starting Odds
Diplomatic Agreement • 33%
Military Confrontation • 33%
Ongoing Dispute • 34%
Official statements from the governments of the Philippines or China, or international mediators
Story
Philippines Rejects China's Allegation of Pointing Guns at Coast Guard in South China Sea
Jun 4, 2024, 04:25 AM
Chinese state media reported on Sunday that Philippine personnel on a vessel near the Second Thomas Shoal in the disputed South China Sea pointed guns at China's Coast Guard. Footage purportedly shows a masked man momentarily holding up a blurred black object, according to CCTV. The Philippine military has rejected these allegations, stating that their troops maintained professional conduct and did not point their weapons at the Chinese Coast Guard. Reuters reported that the incident took place on a warship grounded on the disputed shoal, known as Ayungin Shoal in the Philippines.
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Similar markets
Resolution favoring China • 33%
Resolution favoring Philippines • 33%
Continued dispute without clear resolution • 34%
Sanctions against China • 25%
Sanctions against Philippines • 25%
Diplomatic mediation • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Diplomatic resolution • 33%
Continued military standoff • 33%
Escalation into armed conflict • 34%
China ceases seizing supplies • 25%
Philippines shifts supply strategy • 25%
Continued confrontations • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Public support for the Philippines • 25%
Public support for China • 25%
Calls for peaceful resolution • 25%
No significant international reaction • 25%