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International response to Ayungin Shoal incident by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
UN Resolution • 33%
ASEAN Intervention • 33%
No major intervention • 34%
Official statements from the United Nations, ASEAN, or major global powers
Story
China Coast Guard Seizes Supplies, Obstructs Medical Evacuation at Ayungin Shoal
Jun 4, 2024, 02:21 AM
The China Coast Guard (CCG) has been accused of seizing and dumping overboard food and other supplies meant for Filipino troops stationed at the Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal. The CCG allegedly obstructed a medical evacuation of ailing soldiers and ventured dangerously close to the BRP Sierra Madre, prompting the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) to remain on guard. Chinese state media claims that Filipino soldiers pointed guns at CCG personnel, a claim denied by the AFP. The AFP released a video showing Chinese personnel attempting to seize a freshly airdropped package from Filipino soldiers aboard rubber boats.
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Sanctions on China • 33%
Sanctions on Philippines • 33%
No Sanctions • 34%
Condemnation by UN • 33%
Sanctions against China • 33%
No significant international response • 34%
Sanctions against China • 25%
Sanctions against Philippines • 25%
Diplomatic mediation • 25%
No significant action • 25%
US-Japan joint statement • 25%
UN Security Council discussion • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Bilateral talks between Japan and China • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
UN mediation offered • 34%
US support increases • 33%
No international intervention • 33%
Increased US military presence • 25%
Increased Russian military presence • 25%
Increased Japanese military presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic Agreement • 33%
Military Confrontation • 33%
Ongoing Dispute • 34%
Support for China • 25%
Support for Philippines • 25%
Neutral or no clear support • 25%
Escalation involving other nations • 25%
Strong condemnation and action • 33%
Moderate or diplomatic engagement • 33%
Minimal or no official response • 34%