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Market
How will Taiwan respond domestically to China's military drills by end of 2024?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Strengthening of domestic military capabilities • 25%
Seeking stronger international alliances • 25%
Internal political changes • 25%
No significant change in policy • 25%
Taiwanese government announcements, major Taiwanese news outlets
Story
China Ends Largest Military Drills Around Taiwan with 111 Aircraft, Dozens of Vessels, and Mock Missile Strikes in 'Joint Sword-2024A'
May 26, 2024, 08:09 AM
China has concluded its largest military drills around Taiwan in a year, involving 111 aircraft and a dozen vessels. The exercises, which included mock missile strikes and simulated attacks, were labeled by Taiwan as a 'blatant provocation to the international order.' The drills, named 'Joint Sword-2024A,' coincided with the inauguration of Taiwan's new president, Lai Ching-te, who has extended an offer of cooperation to China despite the heightened military activity. The United States has expressed deep concern over the drills, urging Beijing to exercise restraint. Analysts suggest the drills were a test of Taiwan's defense readiness and a demonstration of China's capability to encircle the island. The exercises have raised international alarm, with calls for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. The Beijing defense ministry and the People’s Liberation Army have reiterated their stance against Taiwanese independence provocations.
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Increase in military spending • 25%
Formation of new military alliances • 25%
Deployment of additional anti-missile systems • 25%
No significant change in military posture • 25%
Increased military readiness • 33%
Seek international support • 33%
Negotiation with China • 34%
Condemnation from multiple countries • 33%
Support from any major country • 33%
No significant international reaction • 34%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Deploy additional troops • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Cyberattacks • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increased tensions with direct conflicts • 25%
Negotiations initiated between China and Taiwan • 25%
UN-mediated peace talks • 25%
No change in the status quo • 25%
Increased military exercises • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic protests • 25%
Cyber attacks • 25%
US condemns the drills • 25%
EU calls for restraint • 25%
ASEAN issues a neutral statement • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Further drills • 33%
No further action • 33%
Military conflict • 34%