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Market
Outcome of military exercises around Taiwan by Nov 2024
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase in military tension • 33%
Status quo maintained • 34%
De-escalation of military activities • 33%
Defense analysis reports, major international news outlets
Story
UN Reaffirms Taiwan as Province of China, Citing Resolution 2758, Amid Military Exercises
May 24, 2024, 08:56 AM
The United Nations has reiterated its stance that Taiwan is a province of China, in alignment with the UN General Assembly resolution 2758 of 1971. This resolution recognizes the People's Republic of China as the sole representative of China to the United Nations. Stephane Dujarric, spokesperson for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, confirmed this position during a media briefing on Thursday. The reaffirmation comes amid ongoing military exercises by China, which has surrounded the island of Taiwan. This is seen as a huge slap in the face for the Lai Ching-te administration.
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Increased tensions with direct conflicts • 25%
Negotiations initiated between China and Taiwan • 25%
UN-mediated peace talks • 25%
No change in the status quo • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Further drills • 33%
No further action • 33%
Military conflict • 34%
Increase in military spending • 25%
Formation of new military alliances • 25%
Deployment of additional anti-missile systems • 25%
No significant change in military posture • 25%
Increased tension in the region • 25%
Negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Reduction in PLA activities • 25%
Strengthening of domestic military capabilities • 25%
Seeking stronger international alliances • 25%
Internal political changes • 25%
No significant change in policy • 25%
Increased alert level • 25%
No change in status • 25%
Strategic military realignment • 25%
Public transparency increase • 25%
