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Changes in regional trade due to China's military drills by end of 2024
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China•Taiwan•Eastern Theater Command•PLA•Taiwan Strait•Taiwan Island•Kinmen•Matsu•Wuqiu•Dongyin•Chinese
Resolution / Starting Odds
Decrease in trade volume in the region • 33%
Increase in trade security measures • 33%
No significant change in trade patterns • 34%
Trade data reports, major economic news sources
Story
China Begins Joint Sword-2024A Military Drills Surrounding Taiwan from May 23 to 24
May 23, 2024, 12:44 AM
China has initiated extensive military drills surrounding Taiwan, involving the Eastern Theater Command of the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The exercises, named Joint Sword-2024A, began at 7:45 a.m. on Thursday, May 23, and are set to continue until Friday, May 24. The drills are being conducted in the Taiwan Strait, as well as the north, south, and east of Taiwan Island, and around the islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu, and Dongyin. These maneuvers come just days after Lai Ching-te was inaugurated as the new president of Taiwan. Chinese officials have stated that the drills serve as a 'strong punishment' for 'separatist acts' and a warning against interference from external forces. Taiwan's military has responded by deploying sea and air forces to ensure the island's defense.
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Increased tension in the region • 25%
Negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Reduction in PLA activities • 25%
Deterioration of trade relations • 33%
Improvement of trade relations • 33%
No significant change in trade relations • 34%
Improvement in relations • 33%
Deterioration in relations • 33%
No significant change • 33%
Significant drop in global stock markets • 25%
Increase in oil prices • 25%
Rise in defense stocks • 25%
No significant impact on global markets • 25%
Increase in military alertness • 25%
No change • 25%
Reduction in military presence • 25%
Strategic alliances formed • 25%
Significantly worsened • 33%
Moderately impacted • 33%
No significant change • 33%
Enhanced deterrence capability • 33%
No significant change • 33%
Decreased stability in the region • 34%
Deterioration • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improvement with specific countries • 25%
General improvement • 25%
Trade agreements remain unchanged • 33%
Minor adjustments to agreements • 33%
Major renegotiations occur • 33%
Significant economic sanctions imposed by multiple countries • 33%
Minor or no new economic sanctions • 33%
Economic boost due to increased military spending • 34%
Deterioration with the US • 25%
Deterioration with the EU • 25%
Strengthening with Russia • 25%
No significant change • 25%
