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Impact on diplomatic relations from Crocus City Hall attack by 2024
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Deterioration in Russia-Ukraine relations • 25%
Improvement in Russia-Ukraine relations • 25%
No significant change in relations • 25%
Increased global isolation of Russia • 25%
Public statements and policy changes by involved countries
Story
Russia Accuses Ukraine, Admits ISIS Role in Crocus City Hall Attack
May 24, 2024, 06:34 AM
Russian authorities have accused Ukrainian military intelligence of being directly involved in the terrorist attack on Crocus City Hall. The Federal Security Service (FSB) chief, Alexander Bortnikov, stated that more than 20 individuals connected to the attack have been detained. However, conflicting reports have emerged, with Russia also acknowledging for the first time that ISIS coordinated the attack on March 22nd. This admission suggests that Ukraine's involvement might be less certain than initially claimed.
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Sanctions against Russia • 25%
Sanctions against Ukraine • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Condemnation without action • 25%
Condemnation with sanctions • 25%
Support for Russia's position • 25%
Neutral or no response • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Continuation of current status • 25%
Reduction in hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Worsened • 33%
Unchanged • 33%
Improved • 33%
No further attacks • 33%
One further attack • 33%
Multiple attacks • 34%
Deterioration of Russia-West relations • 33%
No change in diplomatic relations • 33%
Improvement in diplomatic relations due to transparency • 34%
Deterioration of relations • 33%
No change in relations • 33%
Improvement of relations • 34%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Severing of diplomatic ties with certain countries • 25%
No change in diplomatic relations • 25%
Negotiations for resolution • 25%
International mediation • 25%
Relations worsen significantly • 33%
Relations remain the same • 34%
Relations improve • 33%
Increased Diplomatic Efforts • 25%
Military Escalation • 25%
New Peace Negotiations • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Ukrainian military intelligence • 25%
Western military intelligence • 25%
International terrorist organization • 25%
Unknown/Unconfirmed • 25%