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Market
Primary responsible party for Crocus City Hall attack by 2024
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Primarily Ukraine • 33%
Primarily ISIS • 33%
Joint Ukraine-ISIS operation • 34%
Investigation findings from credible international or Russian authorities
Story
Russia Accuses Ukraine, Admits ISIS Role in Crocus City Hall Attack
May 24, 2024, 06:34 AM
Russian authorities have accused Ukrainian military intelligence of being directly involved in the terrorist attack on Crocus City Hall. The Federal Security Service (FSB) chief, Alexander Bortnikov, stated that more than 20 individuals connected to the attack have been detained. However, conflicting reports have emerged, with Russia also acknowledging for the first time that ISIS coordinated the attack on March 22nd. This admission suggests that Ukraine's involvement might be less certain than initially claimed.
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Ukrainian military intelligence • 25%
Western military intelligence • 25%
International terrorist organization • 25%
Unknown/Unconfirmed • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Sanctions against Russia • 25%
Sanctions against Ukraine • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Condemnation without action • 25%
Condemnation with sanctions • 25%
Support for Russia's position • 25%
Neutral or no response • 25%
No further attacks • 33%
One further attack • 33%
Multiple attacks • 34%
Confirmed as war crime • 33%
Not confirmed as war crime • 33%
Investigation ongoing • 34%
Houthi Movement • 25%
Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula • 25%
ISIS • 25%
Other • 25%
Sanctions on Russia • 33%
Increased military aid to Ukraine • 33%
Humanitarian aid • 33%
Houthi Forces • 33%
Other Yemeni factions • 33%
Unidentified • 34%