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Impact of trial outcome on Trump's political future by the end of 2024
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significantly harms political future • 33%
No significant impact on political future • 33%
Boosts political support • 34%
Analysis of political commentary and public opinion polls
Story
Trump Faces 34 Felony Counts in Hush Money Trial; Judge Threatens Jail
May 6, 2024, 01:36 PM
In New York, the criminal trial against former President Donald Trump, centered on allegations of hush money payments to porn star Stormy Daniels, is intensifying. Prosecutors are attempting to prove Trump falsified business records to conceal a $130,000 payment made to Daniels through his lawyer, Michael Cohen, to suppress negative publicity during the 2016 election. Key witnesses, including a California lawyer and a longtime adviser, have testified. The trial has also spotlighted Trump's repeated violations of a gag order, leading to multiple fines and a strong warning from Judge Juan Merchan that future violations could result in jail time. Trump has been fined $9,000 for these infractions, with the latest fine being $1,000. Trump faces 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. A tape, which launched a political firestorm, was a serious driver in making the hush payment.
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Significantly impacted • 50%
No significant impact • 50%
Significantly harms • 33%
No significant impact • 33%
Boosts his campaign • 34%
Significantly damaged • 25%
Moderately affected • 25%
Minor or no impact • 25%
Enhanced • 25%
Increase in support • 33%
Decrease in support • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Significant negative impact • 33%
No significant impact • 34%
Positive impact • 33%
Significant impact on Republican Party • 25%
Significant impact on Democratic Party • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Impact on individual careers but not parties • 25%
Significantly harmed • 33%
No significant impact • 33%
Boosted his public support • 33%
Significant negative impact • 33%
No significant impact • 33%
Significant positive impact • 33%
Significantly damaged • 33%
Somewhat damaged • 33%
No impact • 34%
Significantly Positive Impact • 25%
No Significant Impact • 25%
Significantly Negative Impact • 25%
Neutral Impact • 25%
Positive Impact • 33%
No Impact • 33%
Negative Impact • 34%
Significantly damaged • 33%
Moderately affected • 33%
No significant impact • 34%