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How will PLA leadership change by the end of 2024 due to the situation near Taiwan?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Change in top leadership • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Increase in military positions • 25%
Reduction in military positions • 25%
Official Chinese government communications or major global political news sources.
Story
US Urges Restraint as China Conducts Military Drills Near Taiwan with PLA Bombers
May 27, 2024, 01:20 AM
The United States has expressed serious concerns over China's recent military activities near Taiwan, labeling them as provocations. The U.S. State Department has urged Beijing to exercise restraint and warned that using routine democratic transitions as a pretext for military actions risks escalation and undermines longstanding peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. This comes amid reports of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) conducting military exercises and releasing videos simulating an invasion of Taiwan, with PLA bombers and fighter jet formations loaded with live munitions.
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No Change • 25%
Change in Top Commander • 25%
Change in Defense Minister • 25%
Widespread Leadership Changes • 25%
Vladimir Putin • 25%
Joe Biden • 25%
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No Change • 25%
Increase in diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Continuation of military pressure • 25%
Economic sanctions against Taiwan • 25%
No change in strategy • 25%
Current leader continues • 34%
A new leader from within the PLA • 33%
A leader from outside the PLA • 33%
Further drills • 33%
No further action • 33%
Military conflict • 34%
Strengthening of existing alliances • 25%
Creation of new military alliances • 25%
No significant changes in alliances • 25%
Reduction of military commitments • 25%
Increase in military spending • 25%
Formation of new military alliances • 25%
Deployment of additional anti-missile systems • 25%
No significant change in military posture • 25%
Kim Jong-un replaced • 33%
Key military officials replaced • 33%
No significant changes • 34%
No Change • 25%
New Chief of Staff • 25%
New Deputy Chief of Staff • 25%
Other Significant Change • 25%
