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How will U.S.-China relations change by end of 2024?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase in sanctions • 25%
Increase in diplomacy • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Decrease in sanctions • 25%
Official government statements, news reports
Story
U.S. State Dept Imposes Visa Restrictions on Chinese, Hong Kong Officials Over #HK47 Verdicts
May 31, 2024, 12:40 PM
The United States is imposing new visa restrictions on Chinese and Hong Kong officials in response to the guilty verdicts from the National Security Law trial of pro-democracy organizers in Hong Kong. The State Department announced these measures, expressing deep concern over the verdicts, including those from the #HK47 trial. The officials targeted by these restrictions are responsible for implementing the National Security Law, similar to actions taken after Article 23. The names of the officials affected by these restrictions have not been made public.
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Improvement • 33%
No change • 33%
Deterioration • 33%
Improved relations • 25%
Unchanged relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Severely deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 33%
Worsened relations • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Deterioration • 33%
Improvement • 33%
No significant change • 33%
Improvement in relations • 33%
Deterioration in relations • 33%
No significant change • 33%
Deterioration with the US • 25%
Deterioration with the EU • 25%
Strengthening with Russia • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Relations improve significantly • 33%
No significant change in relations • 33%
Relations deteriorate • 34%
Improved relations • 33%
Unchanged relations • 34%
Worsened relations • 33%
Increase in high-level meetings • 25%
Formal talks at an international summit • 25%
Implementation of new communication channels • 25%
No significant increase in diplomatic engagements • 25%
Formal defense treaty • 33%
Increased military support • 33%
Continued strategic ambiguity • 34%
Deterioration of trade relations • 33%
Improvement of trade relations • 33%
No significant change in trade relations • 34%