Loading...
Market
Outcome of potential US-China conflict over Taiwan in 2024
5
Xi Jinping•United States•China•Taiwan•European Commission•Ursula von der Leyen•Xi•Washington•Beijing•Financial Times•US
Resolution / Starting Odds
No conflict • 33%
Limited skirmishes • 33%
Full-scale conflict • 34%
Official government statements, news reports from reputable sources.
Story
Xi Jinping Accuses US of Provoking China into Taiwan Conflict in April 2023 Meeting
Jun 16, 2024, 03:05 AM
Chinese President Xi Jinping has accused the United States of attempting to provoke China into attacking Taiwan. In an April 2023 meeting with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Xi claimed that Washington was trying to trick Beijing into an invasion of Taiwan, but he stated that China would not take the bait. This sentiment has been echoed in warnings Xi has given to domestic officials. The Financial Times reported that Xi's comments reflect a belief that the US is seeking conflict over Taiwan, raising concerns about the information and advice Xi is receiving from his subordinates.
View original story
Similar markets
US intervenes militarily • 33%
China takes military action • 33%
No significant military action • 34%
Formal defense treaty • 33%
Increased military support • 33%
Continued strategic ambiguity • 34%
Deploy additional troops • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Cyberattacks • 25%
No significant action • 25%
No significant change • 33%
Increased tensions without military action • 33%
Limited military skirmishes • 34%
Further drills • 33%
No further action • 33%
Military conflict • 34%
Increased military readiness • 33%
Seek international support • 33%
Negotiation with China • 34%
Increase in diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Continuation of military pressure • 25%
Economic sanctions against Taiwan • 25%
No change in strategy • 25%