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How will the participation in pro-Yoon protests change by January 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase significantly • 25%
Remain about the same • 25%
Decrease significantly • 25%
Dissipate completely • 25%
Reports from credible news outlets or official estimates
Story
South Korean Authorities Make Second Attempt to Arrest Impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol Amid Protests
Jan 14, 2025, 08:26 PM
South Korean authorities are at the official residence of impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol to execute an arrest warrant. This marks the second attempt to arrest Yoon, following a failed effort on January 3. The arrest warrant is related to accusations of insurrection stemming from Yoon's declaration of martial law on December 3. The operation involves a significant police presence and is being carried out by the Corruption Investigation Office for High-ranking Officials (CIO). The situation is tense, with over 6,500 pro-Yoon protesters and lawmakers gathered outside the residence in an effort to block the arrest.
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Protests Subside • 33%
Protests Intensify • 33%
Protests Remain Unchanged • 34%
Protests intensify • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Government crackdown • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
President Yoon resigns • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Martial law lifted, Yoon remains • 25%
Protests increase • 25%
Protests decrease • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
Protests remain stable • 25%
Violence or unrest • 25%
Peaceful resolution • 25%
Protesters disband without resolution • 25%
Government concession • 25%
Protests Intensify • 25%
Protests Subside • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Protests End • 25%
Protests lead to President Yoon's resignation • 25%
Protests lead to new government policies • 25%
Protests escalate into larger national movement • 25%
Protests subside with no major change • 25%
Other • 25%
Majority support Yoon • 25%
Majority oppose Yoon • 25%
Public opinion remains divided • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Protests lead to policy changes • 25%
Government crackdown on protests • 25%
Protests escalate into larger political movement • 25%
Protests subside without major changes • 25%
Protests remain evenly matched • 25%
Anti-Yoon protests prevail • 25%
Protests dissipate • 25%
Pro-Yoon protests prevail • 25%