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How will the leadership crisis in South Korea be resolved by September 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yoon remains in power • 25%
New elections held • 25%
Interim government established • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Official announcements from South Korean government or major news outlets
Story
South Koreans Protest as Impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol Defies Arrest Warrant
Jan 11, 2025, 10:12 AM
Thousands of South Koreans have taken to the streets in protest as impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol refuses to comply with a court-issued arrest warrant. Demonstrators from opposing groups gathered in Seoul, with some demanding Yoon's arrest and others calling for his impeachment to be declared invalid. The unrest follows Yoon's directive to soldiers to storm parliament in an attempt to prevent a vote against martial law, which led to his impeachment. Yoon, facing charges of insurrection, remains barricaded in his official residence, which has been fortified with barbed wire and vehicles. The presidential security chief resigned amid questions about blocking Yoon's arrest, and Acting Leader Deputy Prime Minister Choi Sang-mok has urged lawmakers to resolve the crisis through an independent investigation.
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Yoon Resigns • 25%
Yoon Impeached • 25%
Other Resolution • 25%
Yoon Remains in Power • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Other significant resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
President Yoon remains in office • 25%
President Yoon resigns • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Acting President remains • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Martial law continues • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New President Elected • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol remains President • 25%
Interim President Appointed • 25%
Other Scenario • 25%
Other • 25%
Crisis resolved • 25%
Escalation of crisis • 25%
Crisis ongoing • 25%
Interim government established • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Other changes • 25%
President Yoon remains in office • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yoon remains in power • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Yoon is arrested • 25%
Martial law remains, government unchanged • 25%
Martial law lifted, opposition gains power • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Martial law lifted, current government remains • 25%
Military coup occurs • 25%
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
President Yoon remains in power • 25%
Power-sharing agreement reached • 25%
No Decision • 25%
Rejected • 25%
Accepted • 25%
Partial Acceptance • 25%