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Market
How will Lebanon's political landscape change by June 2025 after IDF's operation?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Strengthening of Hezbollah • 25%
Weakening of Hezbollah • 25%
Increased political instability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Reports from political analysts or news agencies like Al Jazeera or BBC
Story
IDF Destroys Hezbollah Tunnels in Southern Lebanon Using 100 Tons of Explosives on October 19
Oct 19, 2024, 03:30 PM
On October 19, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) exposed and destroyed a significant network of Hezbollah tunnels in southern Lebanon. The IDF revealed a 100-meter tunnel embedded under a house and provided an inside look into these tunnels through video releases. The operation targeted Hezbollah's elite Radwan Force, with the IDF using over 100 tons of explosives to demolish four major tunnels. The IDF reported the destruction of more than 50 underground tunnels as part of this extensive operation.
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Similar markets
Significant IDF victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Hezbollah gains ground • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
New government formed • 25%
Current government remains • 25%
Civil unrest increases • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Heavy casualties on both sides • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Hezbollah maintains current strength • 25%
IDF withdraws without major impact • 25%
Other • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Increased military actions • 25%
No significant political change • 25%
Government instability • 25%
Increased support for Hezbollah • 25%
Increased support for pro-Western factions • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Hezbollah gains more political power • 25%
Hezbollah loses political power • 25%
Status quo remains • 25%
Other significant change • 25%
Israeli victory • 25%
Hezbollah victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Hezbollah launches successful retaliation • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Complete withdrawal • 25%
Continued presence • 25%
Escalated conflict • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Government remains stable • 25%
Minor political unrest • 25%
Major political unrest • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
Significant Hezbollah infrastructure destroyed • 25%
Major Hezbollah leaders captured or killed • 25%
Increased regional tensions • 25%
Other • 25%