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What will be the outcome of the next major IDF operation in Lebanon by end of 2024?
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Israel Defense Forces•IDF•Eitan Itzhak Oster•Hezbollah•Lebanon•Oster•Egoz Unit•Commando Brigade•Israeli
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant territorial gains • 25%
Heavy casualties on both sides • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from the IDF or the Israeli government, and news reports
Story
IDF's Captain Eitan Oster, 22, of Egoz Unit Killed in Lebanon Fighting
Oct 2, 2024, 11:51 AM
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced the death of Captain Eitan Itzhak Oster, a 22-year-old officer killed during fighting against Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. Oster served as a team commander in the Egoz Unit of the IDF's Commando Brigade, which specializes in anti-guerrilla warfare, special reconnaissance, and direct action. He is the first Israeli soldier killed by direct fire from Hezbollah since the IDF commenced ground operations in Lebanon. Oster was from Modi'in Maccabim Re'ut.
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Significant Hezbollah infrastructure destroyed • 25%
Major Hezbollah leaders captured or killed • 25%
Increased regional tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Hezbollah launches successful retaliation • 25%
Stalemate with no significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Hezbollah moderately weakened • 25%
Hezbollah remains strong • 25%
Operation called off • 25%
Significant reduction in Hezbollah presence • 25%
Stalemate with no major changes • 25%
Hezbollah regains strength • 25%
Other • 25%
Operation concludes successfully • 25%
Operation concludes with partial success • 25%
Operation concludes without achieving objectives • 25%
Operation extended beyond November 8, 2024 • 25%
Hezbollah significantly weakened • 25%
Hezbollah maintains current strength • 25%
IDF withdraws without major impact • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful with minimal casualties • 25%
Successful with significant casualties • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Operation called off • 25%
Significant IDF victory • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
Hezbollah gains ground • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Destruction of Hezbollah infrastructure • 25%
Significant civilian casualties • 25%
Hezbollah retaliation • 25%
International condemnation • 25%
Successful dismantling of Hezbollah assets • 25%
Significant Hezbollah retaliation • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
International diplomatic intervention • 25%
IDF achieves significant military gains • 25%
Hezbollah retains significant capabilities • 25%
Stalemate with no significant changes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%