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Will U.S.-Panama tensions over the Panama Canal be resolved by the end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the U.S. or Panamanian government
Story
Trump Nominates 34-Year-Old Kevin Marino Cabrera as U.S. Ambassador to Panama Amid Canal Controversy
Dec 25, 2024, 10:05 PM
On December 25, 2024, President-elect Donald Trump announced his nomination of Kevin Marino Cabrera as the U.S. Ambassador to Panama. Cabrera, a Miami-Dade County Commissioner, is described by Trump as a "fierce fighter for America First principles." The announcement comes amid tensions regarding the Panama Canal, which Trump has accused Panama of exploiting, claiming the country is "ripping us off on the Panama Canal, far beyond their wildest dreams." Cabrera, who was elected in 2022 and previously ran Trump's Florida 2020 re-election campaign, will take on this role as the U.S. seeks to address issues surrounding the canal's control. The appointment raises questions about who will fill Cabrera's position on the Miami-Dade County Commission.
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Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Panama agrees to U.S. demands • 25%
Panama agrees to U.S. control • 25%
Panama rejects U.S. control • 25%
No negotiations initiated • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Panama agrees • 25%
Panama rejects • 25%
US withdraws proposal • 25%
Joint control agreement • 25%
Panama retains control with fee reduction • 25%
U.S. regains control • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
No change • 25%
Other • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Military presence increase • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Negotiations failed • 25%
No negotiations initiated • 25%
Successful reacquisition • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%