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Market
Will Trump grant Top Secret clearances without FBI vetting by the end of 2024?
4
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements or credible reports from major news outlets such as The New York Times, Washington Post, or CNN
Story
Trump Advisers Suggest Granting Top Secret Clearances Without FBI Vetting
Oct 27, 2024, 07:43 PM
Advisers to former President Donald Trump are suggesting that he grant Top Secret security clearances without the standard FBI vetting process, according to a report by The New York Times. This proposal would allow Trump to quickly install loyalists in major positions without subjecting them to long-running and intrusive background checks. Critics warn that this could increase the risks of individuals with problematic histories or ties to other nations being given influential roles in the White House.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
All clearances approved without issues • 25%
Some clearances delayed due to issues • 25%
Majority of clearances face significant issues • 25%
Clearance process revised or halted • 25%
Policy continues unchanged • 25%
Policy is reversed • 25%
Policy is modified • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
FBI • 25%
Private Company A • 25%
Private Company B • 25%
Other • 25%
No impact, all assume office smoothly • 25%
Minor delays for some members • 25%
Significant delays for multiple members • 25%
Major disruptions, multiple members unable to assume office • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Speed and efficiency • 25%
Cost reduction • 25%
Avoiding leaks • 25%
Other reasons • 25%