Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of Trump's security clearance policy by end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Policy continues unchanged • 25%
Policy is reversed • 25%
Policy is modified • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reports from major news outlets or official government statements
Story
Trump Transition Team to Grant Security Clearances on First Day, Using Private Companies Instead of FBI
Nov 30, 2024, 12:06 PM
Donald Trump's transition team is set to implement significant changes to the security clearance process for political appointees. On the first day of his administration, Trump plans to grant sweeping security clearances to all appointees, bypassing the FBI's traditional background checks. Instead, his team will utilize private companies for these investigations, reflecting a deep-seated distrust of the FBI. This decision comes in light of perceived bias against Trump and his associates, particularly following actions taken by FBI Director Chris Wray. The transition team has received clearance to meet with the Defense Department and other federal agencies, although they continue to sidestep standard FBI vetting procedures.
View original story
Similar markets
All clearances approved without issues • 25%
Some clearances delayed due to issues • 25%
Majority of clearances face significant issues • 25%
Clearance process revised or halted • 25%
Clearances revoked • 25%
Proposal rejected • 25%
No decision made • 25%
Proposal withdrawn • 25%
No impact, all assume office smoothly • 25%
Minor delays for some members • 25%
Significant delays for multiple members • 25%
Major disruptions, multiple members unable to assume office • 25%
Majority support • 25%
Majority oppose • 25%
Evenly split • 25%
Insufficient data • 25%
No significant reaction • 25%
Public statements of concern • 25%
Diplomatic actions taken • 25%
Formal protests or sanctions • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Granted • 25%
Denied • 25%
Pending • 25%
Withdrawn • 25%
All requests granted • 25%
Some requests granted • 25%
No requests granted • 25%
Unclear outcome • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Policy changes implemented • 25%
Personnel changes made • 25%
Both policy and personnel changes • 25%
0 • 25%
1-5 • 25%
6-10 • 25%
More than 10 • 25%
Claims substantiated • 25%
Claims partially substantiated • 25%
Claims not substantiated • 25%
No official statement • 25%