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Will Trump's administration use private companies for security clearances by January 21, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements or press releases from the Trump administration or relevant news reports
Story
Trump Transition Team to Grant Security Clearances on First Day, Using Private Companies Instead of FBI
Nov 30, 2024, 12:06 PM
Donald Trump's transition team is set to implement significant changes to the security clearance process for political appointees. On the first day of his administration, Trump plans to grant sweeping security clearances to all appointees, bypassing the FBI's traditional background checks. Instead, his team will utilize private companies for these investigations, reflecting a deep-seated distrust of the FBI. This decision comes in light of perceived bias against Trump and his associates, particularly following actions taken by FBI Director Chris Wray. The transition team has received clearance to meet with the Defense Department and other federal agencies, although they continue to sidestep standard FBI vetting procedures.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No impact, all assume office smoothly • 25%
Minor delays for some members • 25%
Significant delays for multiple members • 25%
Major disruptions, multiple members unable to assume office • 25%
All clearances approved without issues • 25%
Some clearances delayed due to issues • 25%
Majority of clearances face significant issues • 25%
Clearance process revised or halted • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Secret Service • 25%
FBI • 25%
Department of Homeland Security • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increased scrutiny and hearings • 25%
No significant issues • 25%
Reversal to FBI checks • 25%
Multiple resignations • 25%