Loading...
Market
Will there be leadership changes in Ukraine or Russia following the offensive by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Change in Ukrainian leadership • 33%
Change in Russian leadership • 33%
No leadership changes • 33%
Official statements from the Ukrainian or Russian governments, or credible news agencies such as BBC, Reuters
Story
Ukraine Launches Largest Ground Offensive into Russia in Over Two Years
Aug 7, 2024, 12:16 PM
Early this morning, Ukraine launched a significant ground offensive into Russian territory from the Sumy Oblast, utilizing troops and armored vehicles. This surprise attack is reported by Moscow and independent military analysts as potentially the largest Ukrainian incursion onto Russian soil in over two years of conflict. The offensive marks a major escalation since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022.
View original story
Similar markets
Change in Russian leadership • 33%
Change in Ukrainian leadership • 33%
No change in leadership • 33%
Vladimir Putin steps down • 25%
Vladimir Putin remains in power • 25%
New military leadership • 25%
Other significant political change • 25%
Putin replaced • 25%
Zelensky replaced • 25%
Both replaced • 25%
Neither replaced • 25%
Change in Ukrainian leadership • 25%
Change in Russian leadership • 25%
Change in both leaderships • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Change in Ukrainian leadership • 25%
Change in Russian leadership • 25%
Change in both leaderships • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Putin remains in power • 25%
Putin resigns or is removed • 25%
New leadership through election • 25%
Other leadership changes • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
Leadership changes due to internal decisions • 25%
Leadership changes due to external pressure • 25%
Leadership changes for other reasons • 25%
Putin remains in power • 25%
Zelensky remains in power • 25%
Change in Russian leadership • 25%
Change in Ukrainian leadership • 25%
Putin remains in power • 25%
Putin steps down • 25%
Putin is replaced • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
Russian military leadership changes • 25%
Ukrainian military leadership changes • 25%
Both Russian and Ukrainian leadership changes • 25%
No leadership changes • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Major leadership changes • 25%
Minor leadership changes • 25%
No leadership changes • 25%
Other significant changes • 25%