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Will there be changes in leadership in Russia or Ukraine by end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Putin replaced • 25%
Zelensky replaced • 25%
Both replaced • 25%
Neither replaced • 25%
Official announcements from the Russian or Ukrainian governments, or credible news sources such as Reuters or BBC
Story
Russia Rules Out Talks with Ukraine After Kursk Incursion
Aug 26, 2024, 09:31 AM
Russia's Deputy Chairman of the Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, has stated that there will be no talks with Ukraine following an incursion into Russia's Kursk region. This incursion, described as the largest since World War II, has led to a muted response from the Kremlin, with President Vladimir Putin opting to downplay the situation. The Kremlin has indicated that the topic of negotiations with Ukraine has lost its relevance, and there have been no ceasefire negotiations. Putin is reportedly receiving regular updates from the field regarding the situation.
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Change in Ukrainian leadership • 25%
Change in Russian leadership • 25%
Change in both leaderships • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Change in Russian leadership • 33%
Change in Ukrainian leadership • 33%
No change in leadership • 33%
Putin remains in power • 25%
Putin resigns or is removed • 25%
New leadership through election • 25%
Other leadership changes • 25%
Change in Ukrainian leadership • 33%
Change in Russian leadership • 33%
No leadership changes • 33%
Putin remains in power • 25%
Zelensky remains in power • 25%
Change in Russian leadership • 25%
Change in Ukrainian leadership • 25%
Vladimir Putin steps down • 25%
Vladimir Putin remains in power • 25%
New military leadership • 25%
Other significant political change • 25%
Change in Ukrainian leadership • 25%
Change in Russian leadership • 25%
Change in both leaderships • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Vladimir Putin remains in power • 25%
New President from United Russia party • 25%
New President from opposition • 25%
Other • 25%
Putin remains in power • 25%
Putin steps down • 25%
Putin is replaced • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains • 33%
New President • 33%
Interim Government • 33%
Policy shift towards increased militarization • 25%
Policy shift towards de-escalation • 25%
Leadership change within Russian government • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Volodymyr Zelensky remains President • 25%
New President due to election • 25%
New President due to resignation • 25%
New President due to other reasons • 25%