Loading...
Market
Will there be a leadership change in Ukraine or Russia due to the Sumy-Kursk incursion by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Change in Ukrainian leadership • 25%
Change in Russian leadership • 25%
Change in both leaderships • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Official announcements from the governments of Ukraine and Russia, verified by international news agencies
Story
Ukraine's Bold Incursion at Sumy-Kursk Border Seeks Leverage
Aug 12, 2024, 04:11 PM
Ukraine has launched a significant and unexpected military incursion into Russian territory, marking a bold strategic move in the ongoing conflict between the two nations. This operation, described as Ukraine's biggest gamble, involves Ukrainian forces advancing into Russia, with reports indicating that their morale remains high. The incursion is seen as an attempt to gain leverage in future negotiations with Moscow. The operation has been characterized as audacious and could potentially alter the dynamics of the conflict. The incursion reportedly took place at the Sumy-Kursk border.
View original story
Similar markets
Change in Ukrainian leadership • 33%
Change in Russian leadership • 33%
No leadership changes • 33%
Vladimir Putin steps down • 25%
Vladimir Putin remains in power • 25%
New military leadership • 25%
Other significant political change • 25%
Putin remains in power • 25%
Putin resigns or is removed • 25%
New leadership through election • 25%
Other leadership changes • 25%
Change in Russian leadership • 33%
Change in Ukrainian leadership • 33%
No change in leadership • 33%
Putin replaced • 25%
Zelensky replaced • 25%
Both replaced • 25%
Neither replaced • 25%
Change in Ukrainian leadership • 25%
Change in Russian leadership • 25%
Change in both leaderships • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Major leadership changes • 25%
Minor leadership changes • 25%
No leadership changes • 25%
Other significant changes • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
Leadership changes due to internal decisions • 25%
Leadership changes due to external pressure • 25%
Leadership changes for other reasons • 25%
No changes • 25%
Minor changes • 25%
Major changes • 25%
Complete overhaul • 25%
Russian military leadership changes • 25%
Ukrainian military leadership changes • 25%
Both Russian and Ukrainian leadership changes • 25%
No leadership changes • 25%
New Commander Appointed • 25%
Current Commander Remains • 25%
Operation Ceased • 25%
Other • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
Military strategy change • 25%
Both changes • 25%
No change • 25%