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Will there be a change in Hezbollah's leadership structure following the elimination of Ali Jamal Aldin Jawad by December 31, 2024?
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Israel Defense Forces•IDF•Ali Jamal Aldin Jawad•Hezbollah•Radwan Force•Lebanon•Ebba•Aabba•Jawad•Israeli Air Force•IAF
Resolution / Starting Odds
No change • 25%
New commander appointed • 25%
Internal power struggle • 25%
Other • 25%
Official statements from Hezbollah and major news outlets
Story
IDF Eliminates Hezbollah Commander Ali Jamal Aldin Jawad in Southern Lebanon
Aug 5, 2024, 07:47 PM
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced the elimination of Ali Jamal Aldin Jawad, a commander in Hezbollah's elite Radwan Force, in a drone strike in southern Lebanon. The operation took place in the area of Ebba, also referred to as Aabba. The IDF has released footage of the strike. The elimination of Jawad, carried out by the Israeli Air Force (IAF), is expected to significantly degrade Hezbollah's capabilities.
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Unknown • 25%
Same Leader • 25%
New Leader • 25%
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Naim Qassem replaced • 25%
No changes • 25%
Other leadership changes • 25%
Unknown/Unconfirmed • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
Leadership change due to internal decision • 25%
Leadership change due to Israeli action • 25%
No clear information on leadership change • 25%
Ali Karaki Replaced • 25%
No Change • 25%
Leadership Restructuring • 25%
Other • 25%
New commander for Rocket and Missile Department • 33%
No change in leadership • 33%
Reorganization within the department • 33%
New leader announced • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
Interim leadership established • 25%
Leadership dispute or conflict • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Current leadership remains • 25%
Internal power struggle • 25%
Hassan Nasrallah remains leader • 25%
Hezbollah disbands • 25%
Naim Qassem remains in power • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Temporary leadership council formed • 25%
Hezbollah leadership remains unchanged • 25%
Ali Karaki promoted • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
No changes • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes, internal restructuring • 33%
Yes, new leader appointed • 33%
No significant changes • 33%
Immediate replacement announced • 25%
Temporary leadership appointed • 25%
No immediate changes • 25%
Internal power struggle • 25%
No change • 25%
Leadership change • 25%
Temporary leadership • 25%
Disbandment • 25%