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Will there be a change in control of northern Syrian territories by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased control by Turkey • 25%
Increased control by YPG • 25%
Control remains unchanged • 25%
Other changes • 25%
Reports from credible news agencies detailing territorial control changes
Story
Turkey's Erdoğan Vows to Eliminate All Terror Groups in Syria at AK Party Congress, Zero Tolerance for YPG Occupying One-third of Syria
Jan 18, 2025, 01:59 PM
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reaffirmed Turkey's commitment to eliminating all terrorist organizations in Syria, stating that this could be achieved either peacefully or through force. Speaking at the AK Party's 8th Annual Provincial Congress in Mersin, Erdoğan emphasized that Turkey has 'zero tolerance' for the YPG, a group he accused of occupying one-third of Syria. He indicated that the government plans to take decisive action to resolve the issue with the YPG and prevent new scenarios from unfolding in the region. Erdoğan's remarks reflect ongoing tensions regarding the presence of various armed groups in Syria, which he claims jeopardize Turkey's security.
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PKK/YPG gains control • 25%
Other groups gain control • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Turkey gains control • 25%
Syrian government • 25%
YPG • 25%
Other Kurdish groups • 25%
Other factions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Stalemate with no change • 25%
Turkish-backed forces gain control • 25%
SDF gains control • 25%
Controlled by Kurdish forces • 25%
Other/Unclear control • 25%
Controlled by rebel groups • 25%
Controlled by Syrian government • 25%
Control remains contested • 25%
YPG retains control • 25%
Syrian government regains control • 25%
Turkey gains control • 25%
Controlled by other factions • 25%
Controlled by YPG • 25%
Controlled by Syrian government • 25%
Controlled by Turkey • 25%
Turkey gains more control • 25%
Other groups gain control • 25%
Stalemate with no change • 25%
PKK/YPG regain control • 25%
SDF retains control • 25%
Joint control established • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Türkiye gains control • 25%
Other local factions • 25%
Turkey-backed forces • 25%
Kurdish militants • 25%
Syrian government forces • 25%
Mixed control • 25%
Controlled by new Syrian government • 25%
Controlled by rebel groups • 25%
Controlled by foreign powers • 25%
Kurdish Forces • 25%
Rebel Forces • 25%
ISIS or other extremist groups • 25%
Syrian Government Forces • 25%
Israeli-backed forces • 25%
Hezbollah • 25%
Syrian Democratic Forces • 25%
Other • 25%