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How many Machava prison escapees will remain at large by March 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Less than 100 • 25%
100 to 500 • 25%
501 to 1000 • 25%
More than 1000 • 25%
Mozambique police reports or government announcements
Story
1,534 Inmates Escape Mozambique's Machava Prison; 33 Dead Amid Election Unrest
Dec 26, 2024, 12:19 AM
On December 25, more than 1,500 prisoners, specifically 1,534 inmates, escaped from the high-security Machava prison near Mozambique's capital, Maputo, amid ongoing protests over disputed presidential election results. The prison break occurred during the third day of unrest triggered by the controversial confirmation of the long-ruling Frelimo party as the winner of recent elections, which the opposition has denounced as fraudulent. According to Mozambique's police general commander, Bernardino Rafael, at least 33 people were killed and 15 injured during riots at the prison. Police have recaptured around 150 escapees so far. The mass escape has raised concerns about public safety, with authorities warning of a potential increase in crime in the capital.
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More than 900 • 25%
601 to 900 • 25%
Less than 300 • 25%
300 to 600 • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other Outcome • 25%
No Significant Recapture • 25%
Minority Recaptured • 25%
Majority Recaptured • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
More than 30 • 25%
21-30 • 25%
0-10 • 25%
11-20 • 25%
3-5 Arrests • 25%
No Further Arrests • 25%
1-2 Arrests • 25%
More than 5 Arrests • 25%
Internal collusion suspected • 25%
No significant findings • 25%
Investigation ongoing by June 30, 2025 • 25%
Security breach identified • 25%
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Yes • 50%
More than 98 • 25%
76 to 98 • 25%
50 to 75 • 25%
Less than 50 • 25%
