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Will regional tensions involving Iran decrease by February 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from international organizations or major news agencies indicating reduced tensions
Story
Iran Suspends Indirect Talks with US Via Oman Amid Regional Tensions
Oct 14, 2024, 11:23 AM
Iran has announced the suspension of indirect talks with the United States, mediated by Oman, due to escalating regional tensions. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that there are no grounds for continuing these discussions, citing America's systematic dishonesty and the current state of war in the region. The 'Muscat process' of indirect talks has halted, and Iran has conveyed messages to the US through intermediaries. The decision reflects Iran's assessment that there is no benefit in exchanging messages with the US under the current circumstances. The announcement was reported by IRNA and Sky News Arabia.
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Increased military activity • 25%
Increased diplomatic efforts • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
No escalation occurs • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Increased diplomatic tensions • 25%
Military confrontation • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No significant change • 25%
De-escalation and diplomatic talks • 25%
Continued military presence without conflict • 25%
Limited military engagement • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
New alliances formed • 25%
Existing alliances strengthened • 25%
Alliances weakened • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased sanctions on Iran • 25%
Mediation efforts • 25%
Military support for Israel • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other regional involvement • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Increased skirmishes • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Limited skirmish • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No conflict • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Escalation to war • 25%
Third-party intervention • 25%
Resolution through diplomacy • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%