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How will tensions over Iran's nuclear activities resolve by the end of 2025?
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Iran•International Atomic Energy Agency•IAEA•Board of Governors•France•Germany•United Kingdom•Abbas Araghchi•Tehran•Mehdi Sanaei•Western•UN•European powers•United States
Resolution / Starting Odds
Resolution through diplomacy • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from involved governments or major news outlets
Story
Iran to Activate Advanced Centrifuges for Uranium Enrichment in Response to Potential IAEA Resolution
Nov 20, 2024, 08:55 AM
Iran has announced plans to activate a significant number of advanced centrifuges for uranium enrichment in response to a potential resolution by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors. The resolution, backed by France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, aims to censure Iran over its nuclear activities. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has warned that Tehran will take proportionate measures if the resolution is passed, including injecting gas into the centrifuges. Mehdi Sanaei, Iran's presidential advisor, stated that Iran will take reciprocal action if the IAEA issues a statement against it. This move comes amid ongoing tensions between Iran and Western nations, with Iran criticizing the resolution as undermining the positive atmosphere established with the UN nuclear watchdog. The European powers and the United States are pushing for the resolution to maintain the credibility of the IAEA and address concerns over Iran's nuclear program.
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Military conflict • 25%
New diplomatic agreement • 25%
Increased sanctions without conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Peace agreement • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Escalation to war • 25%
Third-party intervention • 25%
Diplomatic agreement • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Sanctions increased • 25%
Military action taken • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased sanctions imposed • 25%
Military intervention • 25%
Iran agrees to new restrictions • 25%
Iran refuses further restrictions • 25%
Negotiations continue without resolution • 25%
Negotiations break down completely • 25%
Resolved through diplomacy • 25%
Resolved through sanctions • 25%
Resolved through military intervention • 25%
Unresolved • 25%
New nuclear agreement • 25%
Continuation of current tensions • 25%
Escalation to military conflict • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Pursue nuclear weapons • 25%
Maintain current stance • 25%
Enhance nuclear energy use • 25%
Seek diplomatic resolution • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Increased skirmishes • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Resolution through negotiation • 25%
Resolution through sanctions • 25%
Continued diplomatic stalemate • 25%
Escalation to military tensions • 25%
Iran completes enrichment plans • 25%
Iran halts enrichment • 25%
Iran scales back enrichment • 25%
No significant change • 25%