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What will be the resolution of Israel-Iran tensions by Jun 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Peace agreement • 25%
Continued tensions • 25%
Escalation to war • 25%
Third-party intervention • 25%
Official statements from involved governments or verified reports from major news outlets
Story
White House Distrusts Israeli Government Amid Middle East Tensions, Says Jake Sullivan
Oct 8, 2024, 11:19 AM
The White House has expressed a growing distrust in the Israeli government’s communication regarding its military and policy plans amidst escalating tensions in the Middle East. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan conveyed to Israeli officials that the U.S. expects clarity and transparency from Israel about its plans, particularly concerning potential retaliatory actions against Iran. This comes after a recent Iranian missile strike on Israel, with the Biden administration emphasizing that U.S. support is contingent on being informed about Israel's strategies. Senior American officials, including Barak Ravid, have noted that the trust level between the U.S. and Israel is currently very low, especially in the context of the multi-arena war Israel is waging.
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Full-scale conflict • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued stalemate • 25%
Full-scale war • 25%
Increased skirmishes • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
No escalation occurs • 25%
Limited skirmishes • 25%
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Diplomatic resolution • 25%
De-escalation and talks • 25%
Continued military skirmishes • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Successful de-escalation • 25%
No change in tensions • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Other • 25%
Limited skirmish • 25%
Full-scale conflict • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
No conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Formal peace talks • 25%
Other • 25%
Resolution through diplomacy • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
De-escalation and diplomatic talks • 25%
Continued military posturing • 25%
Military conflict • 25%
Status quo with no significant change • 25%
Increased military conflict • 25%
New diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Sanctions Imposed on Israel • 25%
Official Condemnation of Israel • 25%
No Action Taken • 25%
Other • 25%