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Market
Will ispace's Resilience successfully land on the Moon by June 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcement from ispace or reputable space news outlets
Story
SpaceX Launches Blue Ghost and Resilience Lunar Landers to Moon from Pad 39A
Jan 15, 2025, 06:34 AM
SpaceX has successfully launched two lunar landers, Blue Ghost by Firefly Aerospace and Resilience by Japanese company ispace, aboard a Falcon 9 rocket from Kennedy Space Center's historic pad 39A at 1:11 a.m. ET on January 15, 2025. The Blue Ghost mission will spend approximately 45 days traveling to the Moon and conduct 14 days of surface operations with 10 NASA instruments. ispace's Resilience lander marks the company's second attempt to achieve a moon landing after a previous failure in April 2023 and is scheduled to attempt a landing in May or June. Resilience carries a rover equipped to gather lunar soil samples and test potential resources for future explorers. Both landers have been successfully deployed and are en route to the Moon, representing a significant step in private lunar exploration and efforts to establish a long-term human presence on the Moon.
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Successful landing but mission incomplete • 25%
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Unsuccessful landing • 25%
Successful landing and mission completion • 25%
Landing attempt but mission failure • 25%
Launch failure • 25%
Successful landing but rover non-operational • 25%
Successful landing and rover operational • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Partial success (satellite deployed but not in intended orbit) • 25%
Launch failure • 25%
Successful orbit insertion • 25%
Launch postponed • 25%
Successful landing and mission completion • 25%
Successful landing but mission incomplete • 25%
Unsuccessful landing • 25%
Mission aborted before landing • 25%
Successful orbit insertion • 25%
Failure (e.g., explosion or termination) • 25%
Launch postponed beyond 2025 • 25%
Partial success (e.g., suborbital flight) • 25%
Launch postponed or canceled • 25%
Successful launch and satellite deployment • 25%
Launch failure after liftoff but before orbit • 25%
Launch failure during ascent • 25%