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Market
What will be the outcome of ispace's Resilience lunar mission by June 30, 2025?
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SpaceX•Launch Complex 39A•Kennedy Space Center•Florida•US•Firefly Aerospace•Japanese•Firefly•Blue Ghost•NASA•Commercial Lunar Payload Services•Moon•Artemis•Resilience lander
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful landing and rover operational • 25%
Successful landing but rover non-operational • 25%
Landing attempt but mission failure • 25%
Launch failure • 25%
Official announcements from ispace or relevant space agencies
Story
SpaceX Launches Firefly's Blue Ghost and ispace's Resilience Lunar Landers to the Moon
Jan 15, 2025, 05:30 AM
SpaceX successfully launched a Falcon 9 rocket from Launch Complex 39A at the Kennedy Space Center, Florida, carrying two private lunar landers from US company Firefly Aerospace and Japanese company ispace. The mission, which lifted off on January 15, 2025 at 1:11 am EST, marks a significant milestone in the growing role of the private sector in lunar exploration. Firefly's Blue Ghost lander is part of NASA's Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) initiative and is carrying 10 NASA payloads to the Moon to help prepare for future human missions under the Artemis program. Blue Ghost is expected to land on the lunar surface on March 2. ispace's Resilience lander, carrying a rover equipped to gather lunar soil samples, is expected to land on the Moon in May or June. If successful, ispace could achieve the world's first commercial transaction involving lunar resources. Both landers will conduct scientific investigations and aim to demonstrate commercial capabilities in lunar exploration.
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Partial success • 25%
Successful landing • 25%
Launch postponed • 25%
Failure • 25%
Launch failure • 25%
Successful orbit insertion • 25%
Launch postponed • 25%
Partial success (satellite deployed but not in intended orbit) • 25%
Successful orbit insertion • 25%
Partial success (e.g., suborbital flight) • 25%
Launch postponed beyond 2025 • 25%
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Launch failure after liftoff but before orbit • 25%
Successful launch and satellite deployment • 25%
Launch postponed or canceled • 25%
Launch failure during ascent • 25%
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Mission cancelled • 25%
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Successful launch and mission • 25%
Mission Aborted • 25%
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Complete Success • 25%
Failure • 25%
Focuses on investigation and improvements • 25%
No significant action reported • 25%
Seeks partnership or investment • 25%
Announces a new launch date • 25%
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Technological demonstration • 25%
Successful data collection • 25%
Discovery of lunar resources • 25%
Few experiments successful • 25%
All experiments successful • 25%
Some experiments successful • 25%
No experiments successful • 25%