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What will be the outcome of Space One's next rocket launch attempt by 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful launch and satellite deployment • 25%
Launch failure during ascent • 25%
Launch failure after liftoff but before orbit • 25%
Launch postponed or canceled • 25%
Official reports from Space One or verified news sources
Story
Tokyo Startup Space One's Kairos No. 2 Fails Mid-Flight, Second Consecutive Failure
Dec 18, 2024, 02:22 AM
Space One, a Tokyo-based startup, attempted to launch its small rocket, Kairos No. 2, from Space Port Kii in Kushimoto, Wakayama Prefecture on Wednesday. The launch, aimed at becoming Japan's first private company to successfully put a satellite into orbit, was aborted mid-flight due to a malfunction during the ascent. This marks the second consecutive failure for Space One, following the explosion of the first Kairos rocket shortly after liftoff in March. The Kairos No. 2 rocket, which is 18 meters long and weighs 23 tons, was carrying five small satellites. The company has announced that it is currently investigating the details of the failure and plans to hold a press conference to provide further information.
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Successful orbit insertion • 25%
Partial success (e.g., suborbital flight) • 25%
Failure (e.g., explosion or termination) • 25%
Launch postponed beyond 2025 • 25%
Successful orbit insertion • 25%
Partial success (satellite deployed but not in intended orbit) • 25%
Launch failure • 25%
Launch postponed • 25%
Announce new launch attempt • 25%
Focus on technological improvements • 25%
Seek additional funding • 25%
Partnership with another company • 25%
Spaceport Kii • 25%
Tanegashima Space Center • 25%
Uchinoura Space Center • 25%
Other • 25%
Successful launch and mission • 25%
Successful launch but mission failure • 25%
Launch failure • 25%
Launch postponed • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Successful launch and re-entry • 25%
Launch failure • 25%
Re-entry failure • 25%
Delayed launch beyond January 11, 2025 • 25%