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Will Ilya Yashin participate in a major protest against the Kremlin by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Verified news reports or statements from protest organizers
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Ilya Yashin Added to Russia's Wanted List Post-August Release for Ukraine Criticism
Dec 25, 2024, 12:15 PM
Russian opposition politician Ilya Yashin, who was released from prison in August as part of a prisoner exchange between Russia and Western countries, has been placed on Russia's wanted list. The Russian Interior Ministry added Yashin to its database of wanted persons, but no official announcement has been made regarding new criminal charges against him. Yashin, a former Moscow city councilman, expressed surprise at the move but noted that it was expected. He was previously sentenced to eight and a half years in prison in 2022 for criticizing Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Since his release, Yashin has been involved in the Russian opposition movement in exile, participating in protests against the Kremlin.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Putin remains in power • 25%
Putin is replaced • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
Putin steps down • 25%
Diplomatic action against Ukraine • 25%
Increased security measures • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Policy shift towards increased militarization • 25%
Leadership change within Russian government • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Policy shift towards de-escalation • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Less than 48 months • 25%
More than 72 months • 25%
61 to 72 months • 25%
48 to 60 months • 25%
Investigation inconclusive • 25%
Ukraine officially blamed • 25%
Internal security breach identified • 25%
Other outcome • 25%