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Will there be changes in Russian domestic policy or leadership by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Policy shift towards increased militarization • 25%
Policy shift towards de-escalation • 25%
Leadership change within Russian government • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Official announcements from the Russian government or reports from major news agencies
Story
Putin Vows Greater Destruction on Ukraine After Drone Attack on Kazan, Promises Retaliation
Dec 22, 2024, 11:24 AM
Russian President Vladimir Putin has vowed to inflict greater destruction on Ukraine following a drone attack attributed to Ukrainian forces on Kazan. In a series of statements, Putin emphasized that the adversary would regret their actions, indicating a potential escalation in military responses. This comes one day after the drone strike, which has heightened tensions between the two nations. Putin's comments reflect a commitment to retaliate against Ukraine for the recent attack, reinforcing the ongoing conflict's intensity.
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No leadership change • 25%
Putin is replaced • 25%
Putin steps down • 25%
Putin remains in power • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Diplomatic action against Ukraine • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
Increased security measures • 25%
Other response • 25%
Yes, complete overhaul • 25%
Yes, partial changes • 25%
No changes • 25%
Existing leadership remains • 25%
Leadership remains unchanged • 25%
New military commander appointed • 25%
Leadership restructuring • 25%
Military buildup • 25%
Increased cooperation • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Change in strategic focus • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
Improvement • 25%
Severed relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
Cultural exchange programs • 25%
Economic partnership • 25%
Military cooperation • 25%
No major policy change • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Meeting does not occur • 25%
Existing alliances weakened • 25%
New military alliances formed • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Existing alliances strengthened • 25%