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Will Hamas activities in Gaza significantly reduce by March 2025 following Sinwar's death?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from Israeli intelligence or international monitoring organizations
Story
Netanyahu Offers Immunity to Gazans, Including Hamas Members, Who Release Hostages
Oct 17, 2024, 05:41 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has announced an offer of immunity to any Gazan, including Hamas members, who release hostages and lay down their arms. This announcement follows the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, which Netanyahu described as an important milestone in the fall of Hamas' power in the Gaza Strip. Netanyahu stated, 'Whoever lays down his arms and returns our hostages, we will allow him to leave Gaza and live.'
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Increased hostilities • 25%
Decreased hostilities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Ceasefire or peace talks • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
New leader appointed • 25%
Interim leadership • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Leadership dispute • 25%
New leader appointed • 25%
Interim leadership • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Captured by Israeli forces • 25%
Killed by Israeli forces • 25%
Continues as leader • 25%
Steps down or replaced • 25%
Increased Tensions in Gaza • 25%
Peace Talks Initiated • 25%
Major Hamas Retaliation • 25%
Other • 25%
Remains political chief • 25%
Replaced by another leader • 25%
Assassinated • 25%
Steps down voluntarily • 25%
