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What will be the impact on the Israel-Hamas conflict by January 31, 2025, following Yahya Sinwar's reported death?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased hostilities • 25%
Decreased hostilities • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Ceasefire or peace talks • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and conflict analysts
Story
IDF Conducts DNA Tests, High Confidence Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar Killed in Gaza Strike
Oct 17, 2024, 01:08 PM
Reports emerged on October 17, 2024, suggesting that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar may have been killed in an Israeli airstrike in the Gaza Strip. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that they eliminated three terrorists during operations in Gaza and are investigating the possibility that one of them was Sinwar. Sinwar's body has reportedly been taken to Israel for DNA testing to confirm his identity. Israeli security agencies and officials expressed high confidence that Sinwar was among those killed, but official confirmation is pending. The IDF stated that there were no signs of hostages in the vicinity of the strike. Hamas has not yet issued a statement regarding these reports. U.S. officials have been informed about the developments, according to the New York Times.
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New leader appointed • 25%
Interim leadership • 25%
No leadership change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Significant reduction in Hamas influence • 25%
Moderate reduction in Hamas influence • 25%
No change in Hamas influence • 25%
Increase in Hamas influence • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
New leader appointed • 25%
Interim leadership • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Leadership dispute • 25%
Condemnation of Israel • 25%
Support for Israel • 25%
Calls for Investigation • 25%
No Significant Response • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Confirmed killed • 25%
Confirmed alive • 25%
Status unclear • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Condemnation of the strike • 25%
Support for the strike • 25%
Calls for investigation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Condemnation of Israel • 25%
Support for Israel • 25%
Calls for peace talks • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Captured by Israeli forces • 25%
Killed by Israeli forces • 25%
Continues as leader • 25%
Steps down or replaced • 25%
Increased Tensions in Gaza • 25%
Peace Talks Initiated • 25%
Major Hamas Retaliation • 25%
Other • 25%
Sinwar accepts and hostages released • 25%
Sinwar rejects proposal • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Proposal withdrawn • 25%