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Will Grenell engage in diplomatic talks with Iran by Jun 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
News reports or official statements confirming Grenell's involvement in talks
Story
Trump Considers Former Intelligence Chief Grenell for Iran Envoy Role
Dec 12, 2024, 02:45 AM
President-elect Donald Trump is considering appointing Richard Grenell, his former intelligence chief who also served as the U.S. Ambassador to Germany and Acting Director of National Intelligence, as a special envoy for Iran. Grenell's potential role would involve engaging with regional and international stakeholders on Iran-related issues, according to sources familiar with the transition plans. No final decisions have been made regarding personnel or strategy concerning Iran.
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European Union • 25%
Middle Eastern countries • 25%
Russia • 25%
China • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Appointed as envoy • 25%
Not appointed, remains in another role • 25%
Not appointed, exits government service • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Positive response • 25%
Negative response • 25%
Neutral response • 25%
No official response • 25%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
Talks initiated but no agreement • 25%
Mission aborted • 25%
No mission conducted • 25%