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Will the U.S. announce a new Iran strategy with Grenell by Mar 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcement or press release from the U.S. government
Story
Trump Considers Former Intelligence Chief Grenell for Iran Envoy Role
Dec 12, 2024, 02:45 AM
President-elect Donald Trump is considering appointing Richard Grenell, his former intelligence chief who also served as the U.S. Ambassador to Germany and Acting Director of National Intelligence, as a special envoy for Iran. Grenell's potential role would involve engaging with regional and international stakeholders on Iran-related issues, according to sources familiar with the transition plans. No final decisions have been made regarding personnel or strategy concerning Iran.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other outcome • 25%
Appointed as envoy • 25%
Not appointed, remains in another role • 25%
Not appointed, exits government service • 25%
Neutral response • 25%
Negative response • 25%
Positive response • 25%
No official response • 25%
European Union • 25%
Russia • 25%
China • 25%
Middle Eastern countries • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Increased sanctions • 25%
Preventive airstrikes • 25%