Loading...
Market
What will be Grenell's role in the Trump administration by Apr 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Appointed as envoy • 25%
Appointed to another role • 25%
Not appointed to any role • 25%
Position remains unfilled • 25%
Official announcements from the White House or news reports
Story
Trump Considers Former Intelligence Chief Grenell for Iran Envoy Role
Dec 12, 2024, 02:45 AM
President-elect Donald Trump is considering appointing Richard Grenell, his former intelligence chief who also served as the U.S. Ambassador to Germany and Acting Director of National Intelligence, as a special envoy for Iran. Grenell's potential role would involve engaging with regional and international stakeholders on Iran-related issues, according to sources familiar with the transition plans. No final decisions have been made regarding personnel or strategy concerning Iran.
View original story
Similar markets
Special envoy for Iran • 25%
Other • 25%
No official role • 25%
Another diplomatic role • 25%
Negative impact • 25%
Significant positive impact • 25%
Moderate impact • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Significant Positive Impact • 25%
Moderate Positive Impact • 25%
No Significant Impact • 25%
Negative Impact • 25%
Venezuela • 25%
No mission by this date • 25%
Another country • 25%
North Korea • 25%
No mission conducted • 25%
Mission aborted • 25%
Talks initiated but no agreement • 25%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Not appointed, exits government service • 25%
Not appointed, remains in another role • 25%
Appointed as envoy • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other policy change • 25%
Sanctions increase • 25%
Diplomatic engagement • 25%
Military strategy • 25%