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Will China and the Philippines reach a diplomatic agreement over the Sabina Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal incident by the end of 2024?
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Chinese•Philippine Coast Guard•Sabina Shoal•Second Thomas Shoal•South China Sea•China•Philippine•Philippines•BRP Bagacay•BRP Cape Engaño•Chinese Coast Guard
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the governments of China and the Philippines, or international diplomatic announcements
Story
China and Philippines Trade Accusations After Collision Near Sabina and Second Thomas Shoals
Aug 19, 2024, 02:13 AM
A collision occurred between Chinese and Philippine Coast Guard vessels near the disputed Sabina Shoal and Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea on August 19, 2024. The incident has led to both nations trading accusations. China claims that a Philippine vessel deliberately collided with a Chinese ship in an 'unprofessional and dangerous' manner, while the Philippines accuses China of conducting 'unlawful and aggressive maneuvers' that caused structural damage to its ships, BRP Bagacay and BRP Cape Engaño. The collision marks a new flashpoint in the ongoing territorial disputes in the region. The Chinese Coast Guard has vowed to maintain 'forceful measures' to safeguard its territorial sovereignty.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
New agreement reached • 25%
Philippines files protest • 25%
China imposes sanctions • 25%
Other • 25%
Compensation paid • 25%
Joint patrol agreement • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
China backs down • 25%
Philippines backs down • 25%
Mutual agreement reached • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Formal protest lodged with international bodies • 25%
Increased naval patrols in the area • 25%
Engagement in diplomatic talks with China • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%
