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What will be the outcome of the China-Philippines South China Sea dispute by the end of 2024?
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South China Sea•China•Philippine•China Coast Guard•CCG•BRP Datu Sanday•Escoda Shoal•West Philippine Sea•BRP Teresa Magbanua•BRP Sierra Madre•EEZ•Xianbin Jiao
Resolution / Starting Odds
China backs down • 25%
Philippines backs down • 25%
Mutual agreement reached • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Official statements from the governments of China and the Philippines, or reputable news sources like Reuters, BBC, or Al Jazeera
Story
China Fires Water Cannon from Ship 4102 at Philippine Vessels in South China Sea
Aug 25, 2024, 07:32 AM
Tensions have heightened in the South China Sea as China announced it has taken 'countermeasures' against Philippine aircraft and vessels in the region. The China Coast Guard (CCG) has reportedly fired a water cannon at the BRP Datu Sanday, a Philippine vessel, as it was en route to Escoda Shoal in the West Philippine Sea. The incident involved the CCG ship 4102. Additionally, the CCG has placed the BRP Teresa Magbanua and the BRP Sierra Madre under effective quarantine within the Philippines' Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). China claims these actions are in response to what it describes as intrusions by Philippine vessels into its waters, specifically at Xianbin Jiao. The CCG also reported an incident involving a collision with a Philippine vessel, stating that it rescued personnel who fell into the water based on humanitarian principles.
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United Nations sanctions China • 25%
ASEAN issues a joint statement • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Other significant international response • 25%
Compensation paid • 25%
Joint patrol agreement • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Victory for the Philippines • 25%
Victory for China • 25%
Settlement • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Resolution through negotiations • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Continued Standoff • 25%
Military Engagement • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution • 25%
Military engagement • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Both Approved • 25%
Both Rejected • 25%
Philippines Approved, Vietnam Rejected • 25%
Vietnam Approved, Philippines Rejected • 25%
Formal protest lodged with international bodies • 25%
Increased naval patrols in the area • 25%
Engagement in diplomatic talks with China • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%
Formal agreement reached • 25%
International arbitration • 25%
Ongoing dispute • 25%
Military escalation • 25%
Philippines removes vessel • 25%
Philippines maintains vessel • 25%
Joint management agreement • 25%
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%