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Who will be identified as the primary suspect in the EstLink 2 sabotage by May 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
State actor • 25%
Non-state actor • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Official reports or announcements from Estonian authorities
Story
Estonia Deploys Navy to Protect EstLink 1 Cable After Suspected Sabotage; Seeks NATO, Finland Aid
Dec 27, 2024, 10:09 AM
Estonia has launched a naval operation today to protect the 105-kilometer EstLink 1 undersea power cable, deploying Navy patrol boats to guard the critical energy link with Finland in the Baltic Sea. The operation follows damage to the EstLink 2 cable on Christmas Day, which authorities suspect was caused by sabotage involving the anchor of an oil tanker, the Eagle S. Estonian Defense Forces are working to secure undersea infrastructure, with NATO and Finnish forces preparing a response. Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna announced the deployment and emphasized the importance of safeguarding energy connections in the region. Estonia has requested assistance from Finland and NATO to bolster security.
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Other • 25%
No suspect identified • 25%
Another foreign vessel • 25%
Eagle S tanker crew • 25%
Russia found responsible • 25%
Non-state actor found responsible • 25%
Cause remains undetermined • 25%
Another state actor found responsible • 25%
State actor • 25%
Non-state actor • 25%
Accidental cause • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Technical failure • 25%
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Another country • 25%
Non-state actors • 25%
Russia • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
No conclusive cause • 25%
Technical fault confirmed • 25%
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Vessel involvement confirmed • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Other • 25%
Technical failure • 25%
Sabotage • 25%