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Will the responsible party for the EstLink 2 cable damage be identified by June 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official reports from Estonian authorities or international investigative bodies
Story
Estonia Deploys Navy to Protect EstLink 1 Cable After Suspected Sabotage; Seeks NATO, Finland Aid
Dec 27, 2024, 10:09 AM
Estonia has launched a naval operation today to protect the 105-kilometer EstLink 1 undersea power cable, deploying Navy patrol boats to guard the critical energy link with Finland in the Baltic Sea. The operation follows damage to the EstLink 2 cable on Christmas Day, which authorities suspect was caused by sabotage involving the anchor of an oil tanker, the Eagle S. Estonian Defense Forces are working to secure undersea infrastructure, with NATO and Finnish forces preparing a response. Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna announced the deployment and emphasized the importance of safeguarding energy connections in the region. Estonia has requested assistance from Finland and NATO to bolster security.
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Accidental cause • 25%
Unknown • 25%
State actor • 25%
Non-state actor • 25%
Eagle S • 25%
No vessel identified • 25%
Another vessel • 25%
Xin Xin Tian • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Cause undetermined • 25%
Anchor damage by 'Eagle S' • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Sabotage by another entity • 25%
No suspect identified • 25%
Another foreign vessel • 25%
Other • 25%
Eagle S tanker crew • 25%
Russia • 25%
Other • 25%
No country held responsible • 25%
Another country • 25%
Inconclusive results • 25%
Confirmed accidental damage • 25%
Confirmed sabotage by foreign entity • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Natural Causes • 25%
Sabotage • 25%
Accidental Damage • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
Non-State Actor • 25%
Technical Fault • 25%
Unknown/Other • 25%
State Actor • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Technical failure • 25%
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Vessel involvement confirmed • 25%
Technical fault confirmed • 25%
No conclusive cause • 25%