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Market
Outcome of EstLink 2 sabotage investigation by June 30, 2025
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Estonia•Gulf of Finland•Finland•Estonian Navy•Baltic Sea•Estonian•Hanno Pevkur•Margus Tsahkna•Estonian Defense Forces•Kaitsevagi•Russian•NATO•Mark Rutte
Resolution / Starting Odds
Russia found responsible • 25%
Another state actor found responsible • 25%
Non-state actor found responsible • 25%
Cause remains undetermined • 25%
Official investigation reports or statements from Estonian or Finnish authorities
Story
Estonia Protects EstLink 1 in Gulf of Finland as NATO Boosts Baltic Presence After Sabotage
Dec 27, 2024, 10:50 AM
Estonia has launched a naval operation in the Gulf of Finland to protect the EstLink 1 undersea electricity cable connecting it to Finland, following suspected sabotage of EstLink 2 on December 25. The Estonian Navy dispatched patrol boats to guard the 105-kilometer subsea power link amid concerns over damage to undersea infrastructure in the Baltic Sea. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur and Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna announced the deployment, emphasizing the need to safeguard critical infrastructure. The Estonian Defense Forces (@Kaitsevagi) are involved in the operation. Finland seized the Russian-linked oil tanker Eagle S, suspected of damaging five cables with its anchor, including EstLink 2. Estonia and Finland have requested NATO to enhance its military presence in the Baltic Sea, and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that the alliance would increase its presence in response to possible sabotage of undersea cables.
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Similar markets
Inconclusive • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Technical failure • 25%
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Confirmed accidental damage • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Inconclusive results • 25%
Confirmed sabotage by foreign entity • 25%
Resolved without conviction • 25%
Closed without resolution • 25%
Ongoing investigation • 25%
Resolved with conviction • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
State actor • 25%
Non-state actor • 25%
Unknown • 25%
No conclusive cause • 25%
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Vessel involvement confirmed • 25%
Technical fault confirmed • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Inconclusive • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Sabotage confirmed • 25%
Unknown • 25%
Accidental cause • 25%
Non-state actor • 25%
State actor • 25%
No suspect identified • 25%
Another foreign vessel • 25%
Other • 25%
Eagle S tanker crew • 25%
Natural causes • 25%
Intentional sabotage • 25%
Accidental damage • 25%
Undetermined • 25%