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Who will be elected as Lebanese president by the end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Joseph Aoun • 25%
Candidate allied with Hezbollah • 25%
Other non-Hezbollah candidate • 25%
No election • 25%
Official announcement from the Lebanese government or reputable international news organizations
Story
White House Seeks to Elect New Lebanese President Amid Hezbollah Weakness, Following Israel's Blow: Axios
Oct 4, 2024, 03:36 PM
The White House is aiming to leverage Hezbollah's current weakness, following a significant blow to its leadership and infrastructure by Israel, to facilitate the election of a new Lebanese president in the coming days. U.S. officials see this as an opportunity to break the two-year deadlock in Lebanon's presidential election. One candidate being considered is General Joseph Aoun, the commander of the Lebanese armed forces, who has the backing of the U.S. and France. The Biden administration's strategy is to elect a president not allied with Hezbollah, prioritizing this over a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. This information was reported by Axios, highlighting the urgency before a diplomatic solution with Israel.
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Candidate A • 25%
Candidate B • 25%
Candidate C • 25%
Other • 25%
Hezbollah-led coalition • 33%
Opposition-led coalition • 33%
Technocrat government • 33%
Government collapse • 25%
Increased civil unrest • 25%
New coalition government • 25%
No significant change • 25%
New Prime Minister • 25%
New President • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Other significant political change • 25%
Naim Qassem • 25%
Mohammad Raad • 25%
Hashem Safieddine • 25%
Other • 25%
Mounir al-Maqdah • 25%
Other senior Fatah official • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Other • 25%
Prime Minister resigns • 25%
Parliament dissolved • 25%
New elections called • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Naim Qassem • 25%
Mustafa Mughniyeh • 25%
Ibrahim al-Amin • 25%
Other • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
New elections • 25%
Increased foreign intervention • 25%
Other • 25%
Naim Qassem • 25%
Hashem Safieddine • 25%
Ibrahim Amin al-Sayyid • 25%
Other • 25%
Government remains unchanged • 25%
Government resigns • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Other significant political change • 25%