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Which third-party country will be involved in the negotiation process for the captured North Korean soldiers by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
China • 25%
United States • 25%
European Union • 25%
No third-party involvement • 25%
Official announcements from involved countries or credible news outlets
Story
Zelensky Proposes Exchange of Two North Korean Soldiers Captured in Kursk for Ukrainian POWs
Jan 12, 2025, 06:26 PM
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced that Ukraine is prepared to hand over captured North Korean soldiers to their leader, Kim Jong Un, in exchange for Ukrainian prisoners of war held by Russia. This statement follows the capture of two North Korean soldiers by Ukrainian forces in Russia's Kursk region, marking the first time Ukraine has captured North Korean soldiers since their involvement in the conflict. Zelensky indicated that more North Korean soldiers are expected to be captured, and he is open to facilitating their return to North Korea if it leads to the release of Ukrainian captives. He also mentioned alternative options for North Korean soldiers who do not wish to return, suggesting they could contribute to peace efforts by sharing information about the war in their language.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other • 25%
Trial in Ukraine • 25%
Prisoner exchange • 25%
Deportation to North Korea • 25%
China • 25%
Russia • 25%
North Korea • 25%
United States • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Soldiers returned to North Korea • 25%
Soldiers remain detained in Ukraine • 25%
Soldiers granted asylum in a third country • 25%
UN resolution or statement • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Diplomatic talks initiated • 25%
Sanctions against North Korea • 25%
Returned to North Korea without exchange • 25%
Remain in Ukraine • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Exchanged for Ukrainian soldiers • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Inconclusive results • 25%
Denial of North Korean military involvement • 25%
Confirmation of North Korean military involvement • 25%
Confession of combat role • 25%
Denial of combat role • 25%
Revelation of new intelligence • 25%
No significant information • 25%
No information released • 25%
Issue a formal protest • 25%
No official action • 25%
Seek diplomatic talks with North Korea • 25%
Increase military readiness • 25%